What’s Up With The Quiet Atlantic Tropical Activity? 

No, you haven’t been missing the latest hurricane news. The 2021 hurricane season just feels eerily quiet after the incredibly active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

While Hurricane Ida and other storms have made big headlines for destructiveness, the volume of overall storms is down. But why is there less activity right now, and how does this year stack up against the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?

Crickets Compared To Last Year 

There hasn’t been any Atlantic tropical activity since Tropical Storm Victor dissipated on October 4, 2021. 

At this time last year, mid-October, Hurricanes Epsilon and Zeta rampaged through the Atlantic as the 26 and 27 named storms of the season. Reaching 30 named storms by the end of November 2020 officially became the busiest hurricane season on record. 

In May 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted another active Atlantic hurricane season, and residents of North America braced for impact. 

However, at the time, forecasters also noted that 2021 would likely not reach the historical activity level seen in 2020. 

NOAA’s 2021 Outlook

In May, forecasters predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. 

They also predicted a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms, with six to 10 reaching hurricane status. This prediction is right on par with our current activity level. As of October, there have been 20 named storms, seven of which reached hurricane status. 

Now that it’s been a couple of quiet weeks, does this mean the end of the season is near? 

Read more: Peak of 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ahead of Schedule

What’s Next for the 2021 Atlantic Tropical Activity  

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but the atmosphere knows no calendar, so who’s to say we won’t see activity run into December.  

As outlined in the Washington Post, most tropical threats during October affect the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are still running between 80 and 84 degrees, with the Caribbean pushing 86 degrees. These temperatures are more than enough to trigger a tropical cyclone in the coming weeks. 

Current forecasts predict no tropical activity for the next five days. Thus, the next tropical cyclone to develop would be “Wanda,” the last on the list of primary Atlantic names.

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